1st Source Stock Price Prediction
| SRCE Stock | USD 64.89 0.33 0.51% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
60
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.068 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.3 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.44 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.2633 | Wall Street Target Price 63.6667 |
Using 1st Source hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of 1st Source from the perspective of 1st Source response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in 1st Source to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying 1st because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
1st Source after-hype prediction price | USD 64.86 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
1st |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of 1st Source's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
1st Source After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of 1st Source at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in 1st Source or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of 1st Source, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
1st Source Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting 1st Source's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on 1st Source's historical news coverage. 1st Source's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 62.66 and 67.06, respectively. We have considered 1st Source's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
1st Source is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of 1st Source is based on 3 months time horizon.
1st Source Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as 1st Source is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading 1st Source backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with 1st Source, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 2.20 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 8 Events / Month | 14 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
64.89 | 64.86 | 0.05 |
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1st Source Hype Timeline
1st Source is at this time traded for 64.89. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. 1st is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 64.86. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.13%. The volatility of related hype on 1st Source is about 653.13%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 64.93. About 16.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.44. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. 1st Source has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.03. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.25. The firm last dividend was issued on the 5th of November 2024. 1st Source had 11:10 split on the 3rd of August 2006. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out 1st Source Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.1st Source Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to 1st Source's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict 1st Source's future price movements. Getting to know how 1st Source's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how 1st Source may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
1st Source Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine 1st price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for 1st using various technical indicators. When you analyze 1st charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About 1st Source Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of 1st Source stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as 1st Source, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of 1st Source based on analysis of 1st Source hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to 1st Source's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to 1st Source's related companies. | 2020 | 2021 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0289 | 0.0252 | 0.017 | Price To Sales Ratio | 3.12 | 3.69 | 2.46 |
Story Coverage note for 1st Source
The number of cover stories for 1st Source depends on current market conditions and 1st Source's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that 1st Source is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about 1st Source's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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1st Source Short Properties
1st Source's future price predictability will typically decrease when 1st Source's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of 1st Source often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential 1st Source's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. 1st Source's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 24.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 106.4 M |
Complementary Tools for 1st Stock analysis
When running 1st Source's price analysis, check to measure 1st Source's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy 1st Source is operating at the current time. Most of 1st Source's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of 1st Source's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move 1st Source's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of 1st Source to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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