Sinar Mas (Indonesia) Volatility
| SMAR Stock | IDR 3,840 10.00 0.26% |
Sinar Mas Agro owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0389, which indicates the firm had a -0.0389% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Sinar Mas Agro exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Sinar Mas' Coefficient Of Variation of (1,427), variance of 2.78, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.04) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. Key indicators related to Sinar Mas' volatility include:
90 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Distress | 90 Days Economic Sensitivity |
Sinar Mas Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Sinar daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Sinar's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Sinar Mas volatility.
Sinar |
Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Sinar Mas at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Sinar stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower their average cost per share, thereby improving the overall portfolio performance when market normalizes.
Moving against Sinar Stock
Sinar Mas Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk
Sinar Mas' beta coefficient measures the volatility of Sinar stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Sinar stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Sinar Mas's beta of -0.16 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Sinar Mas stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. Sinar Mas Agro exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 0.48 and kurtosis of 2.9. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Sinar Mas' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Sinar Mas' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Sinar Mas Agro Demand TrendCheck current 90 days Sinar Mas correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)Sinar Beta |
Sinar standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.
Standard Deviation | 1.65 |
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Sinar Mas's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Sinar Mas' daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in sinar stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Sinar Mas.
Sinar Mas Agro Stock Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which Sinar Mas stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Sinar Mas' price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Sinar Mas' stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Sinar Mas' volatility:
Historical Volatility
This type of stock volatility measures Sinar Mas' fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Sinar Mas' future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.Implied Volatility
This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Sinar Mas' current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Sinar Mas' to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Sinar Mas Agro Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
Sinar Mas Projected Return Density Against Market
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Sinar Mas Agro has a beta of -0.159 . This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Sinar Mas are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Sinar Mas Agro is likely to outperform the market.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Sinar Mas or Food Products sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Sinar Mas' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Sinar stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Sinar Mas Agro has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Predicted Return Density |
| Returns |
What Drives a Sinar Mas Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence a stock's market volatility:Industry
Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.Political and Economic environment
When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.The Company's Performance
Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.Sinar Mas Stock Risk Measures
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the coefficient of variation of Sinar Mas is -2570.47. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 2.73 and standard deviation of 1.65. The mean deviation of Sinar Mas Agro is currently at 1.09. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (Dow Jones Industrial) has volatility of 0.72
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.16 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.65 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
Sinar Mas Stock Return Volatility
Sinar Mas historical daily return volatility represents how much of Sinar Mas stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The company accepts 1.6517% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, Dow Jones Industrial accepts 0.7328% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance |
| Timeline |
About Sinar Mas Volatility
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Sinar Mas or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Sinar Mas may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Sinar's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Sinar Mas and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Sinar Mas fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.3 ways to utilize Sinar Mas' volatility to invest better
Higher Sinar Mas' stock volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of Sinar Mas Agro stock is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. Sinar Mas Agro stock volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:- Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of Sinar Mas Agro investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
- Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in Sinar Mas' stock can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
- Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of Sinar Mas' stock relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
Sinar Mas Investment Opportunity
Sinar Mas Agro has a volatility of 1.65 and is 2.26 times more volatile than Dow Jones Industrial. 14 percent of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Sinar Mas. You can use Sinar Mas Agro to enhance the returns of your portfolios. The stock experiences a normal upward fluctuation. Check odds of Sinar Mas to be traded at 4032.0 in 90 days.Good diversification
The correlation between Sinar Mas Agro and DJI is -0.07 (i.e., Good diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Sinar Mas Agro and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.
Sinar Mas Additional Risk Indicators
The analysis of Sinar Mas' secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sinar Mas' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Sinar Mas stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.04) | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.8075 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 1.13 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | (1,427) | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Variance | 2.78 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.14) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Sinar Mas Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Sinar Mas as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Sinar Mas' systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Sinar Mas' unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Sinar Mas Agro.
Other Information on Investing in Sinar Stock
Sinar Mas financial ratios help investors to determine whether Sinar Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Sinar with respect to the benefits of owning Sinar Mas security.