Develia SA Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

DVL Stock   5.82  0.11  1.85%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Develia SA on the next trading day is expected to be 5.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.58. Develia Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Develia SA - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Develia SA prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Develia SA price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Develia SA.

Develia SA Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Develia SA on the next trading day is expected to be 5.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.58.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Develia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Develia SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Develia SA Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Develia SADevelia SA Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Develia SA Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Develia SA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Develia SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.28 and 8.34, respectively. We have considered Develia SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
5.82
5.81
Expected Value
8.34
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Develia SA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Develia SA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.01
MADMean absolute deviation0.0946
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0163
SAESum of the absolute errors5.5791
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Develia SA observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Develia SA observations.

Predictive Modules for Develia SA

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Develia SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Develia SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
3.295.828.35
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3.135.668.19
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Develia SA

For every potential investor in Develia, whether a beginner or expert, Develia SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Develia Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Develia. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Develia SA's price trends.

Develia SA Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Develia SA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Develia SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Develia SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Develia SA Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Develia SA's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Develia SA's current price.

Develia SA Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Develia SA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Develia SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Develia SA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Develia SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Develia SA Risk Indicators

The analysis of Develia SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Develia SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting develia stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Develia SA

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Develia SA position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Develia SA will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Develia Stock

  0.7DOM Dom Development SAPairCorr

Moving against Develia Stock

  0.46TOW Tower InvestmentsPairCorr
  0.44MIL Bank Millennium SAPairCorr
  0.42BHW Bank Handlowy wPairCorr
  0.4PKN Polski Koncern NaftowyPairCorr
  0.31MBK mBank SAPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Develia SA could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Develia SA when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Develia SA - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Develia SA to buy it.
The correlation of Develia SA is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Develia SA moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Develia SA moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Develia SA can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Develia Stock Analysis

When running Develia SA's price analysis, check to measure Develia SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Develia SA is operating at the current time. Most of Develia SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Develia SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Develia SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Develia SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.