FS Bancorp Pink Sheet Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average

FXLG Stock  USD 32.00  0.20  0.63%   
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of FS Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 31.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.00. FXLG Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of FS Bancorp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
An 8-period moving average forecast model for FS Bancorp is based on an artificially constructed time series of FS Bancorp daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

FS Bancorp 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 9th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of FS Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 31.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.00.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FXLG Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FS Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

FS Bancorp Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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FS Bancorp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting FS Bancorp's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. FS Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.13 and 32.14, respectively. We have considered FS Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
32.00
31.64
Expected Value
32.14
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FS Bancorp pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FS Bancorp pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria100.2896
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1241
MADMean absolute deviation0.1698
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0054
SAESum of the absolute errors8.9975
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. FS Bancorp 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for FS Bancorp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FS Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve