FS Bancorp Pink Sheet Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

FXLG Stock  USD 31.75  0.70  2.25%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FS Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 31.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.72. FXLG Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of FS Bancorp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for FS Bancorp - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When FS Bancorp prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in FS Bancorp price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of FS Bancorp.

FS Bancorp Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FS Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 31.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.72.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FXLG Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FS Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

FS Bancorp Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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FS Bancorp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting FS Bancorp's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. FS Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.16 and 32.19, respectively. We have considered FS Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
31.75
31.67
Expected Value
32.19
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FS Bancorp pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FS Bancorp pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0237
MADMean absolute deviation0.0969
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0031
SAESum of the absolute errors5.7163
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past FS Bancorp observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older FS Bancorp observations.

Predictive Modules for FS Bancorp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FS Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
31.2031.7532.30
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
30.7631.3131.86
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
31.1531.3831.60
Details

Other Forecasting Options for FS Bancorp

For every potential investor in FXLG, whether a beginner or expert, FS Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FXLG Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FXLG. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying FS Bancorp's price trends.

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 Risk & Return  Correlation

FS Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of FS Bancorp's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of FS Bancorp's current price.

FS Bancorp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how FS Bancorp pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading FS Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying FS Bancorp pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify FS Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

FS Bancorp Risk Indicators

The analysis of FS Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in FS Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fxlg pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in FXLG Pink Sheet

When determining whether FS Bancorp is a strong investment it is important to analyze FS Bancorp's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact FS Bancorp's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding FXLG Pink Sheet, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FS Bancorp to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in FXLG Pink Sheet please use our How to Invest in FS Bancorp guide.
You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Please note, there is a significant difference between FS Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if FS Bancorp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, FS Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.