Jaguar Mining Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

JAG Stock  CAD 2.23  0.04  1.76%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Jaguar Mining on the next trading day is expected to be 2.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.03. Jaguar Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Jaguar Mining's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Jaguar Mining's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Jaguar Mining fundamentals over time.
  
As of the 23rd of December 2024, Inventory Turnover is likely to grow to 6.97, while Payables Turnover is likely to drop 5.04. . As of the 23rd of December 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 79.3 M. Also, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to grow to about 25.9 M.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Jaguar Mining price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Jaguar Mining Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Jaguar Mining on the next trading day is expected to be 2.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.03.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Jaguar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Jaguar Mining's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Jaguar Mining Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Jaguar MiningJaguar Mining Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Jaguar Mining Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Jaguar Mining's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Jaguar Mining's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 6.94, respectively. We have considered Jaguar Mining's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2.23
2.45
Expected Value
6.94
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Jaguar Mining stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Jaguar Mining stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.4738
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2137
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0614
SAESum of the absolute errors13.0334
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Jaguar Mining historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Jaguar Mining

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Jaguar Mining. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.122.356.84
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.112.166.65
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.080.080.08
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Jaguar Mining

For every potential investor in Jaguar, whether a beginner or expert, Jaguar Mining's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Jaguar Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Jaguar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Jaguar Mining's price trends.

Jaguar Mining Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Jaguar Mining stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Jaguar Mining could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Jaguar Mining by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Jaguar Mining Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Jaguar Mining's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Jaguar Mining's current price.

Jaguar Mining Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Jaguar Mining stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Jaguar Mining shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Jaguar Mining stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Jaguar Mining entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Jaguar Mining Risk Indicators

The analysis of Jaguar Mining's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Jaguar Mining's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting jaguar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Jaguar Mining

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Jaguar Mining position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Jaguar Mining will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Jaguar Stock

  0.82ORE Orezone Gold CorpPairCorr
  0.72INFM Infinico Metals CorpPairCorr

Moving against Jaguar Stock

  0.91AMZN Amazon CDRPairCorr
  0.88WMT Walmart Inc CDRPairCorr
  0.87GOOG Alphabet CDRPairCorr
  0.71AAPL Apple Inc CDRPairCorr
  0.55ARX ARC ResourcesPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Jaguar Mining could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Jaguar Mining when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Jaguar Mining - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Jaguar Mining to buy it.
The correlation of Jaguar Mining is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Jaguar Mining moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Jaguar Mining moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Jaguar Mining can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Jaguar Stock

Jaguar Mining financial ratios help investors to determine whether Jaguar Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Jaguar with respect to the benefits of owning Jaguar Mining security.