Urban Outfitters Stock Price Prediction
| URBN Stock | USD 47.49 7.35 18.31% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
66
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.127 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.28 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.53 | Wall Street Target Price 41.3462 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 1 |
Using Urban Outfitters hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Urban Outfitters from the perspective of Urban Outfitters response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Urban Outfitters to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Urban because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Urban Outfitters after-hype prediction price | USD 47.19 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Urban |
Urban Outfitters After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Urban Outfitters at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Urban Outfitters or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Urban Outfitters, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Urban Outfitters Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Urban Outfitters' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Urban Outfitters' historical news coverage. Urban Outfitters' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 44.20 and 50.18, respectively. We have considered Urban Outfitters' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Urban Outfitters is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Urban Outfitters is based on 3 months time horizon.
Urban Outfitters Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Urban Outfitters is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Urban Outfitters backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Urban Outfitters, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.47 | 3.01 | 0.31 | 0.14 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
47.49 | 47.19 | 0.63 |
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Urban Outfitters Hype Timeline
Urban Outfitters is at this time traded for 47.49. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.31, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.14. Urban is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 47.19. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.63%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.47%. The volatility of related hype on Urban Outfitters is about 1045.95%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 47.35. About 33.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.67. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Urban Outfitters has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.01. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 2:1 split on the 26th of September 2005. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Urban Outfitters Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Urban Outfitters Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Urban Outfitters' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Urban Outfitters' future price movements. Getting to know how Urban Outfitters' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Urban Outfitters may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AEO | American Eagle Outfitters | (0.20) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 2.59 | (4.39) | 9.65 | |
| GPS | Gap Inc | (0.92) | 10 per month | 2.65 | 0.03 | 6.38 | (4.61) | 36.06 | |
| FL | Foot Locker | 0.24 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 4.66 | (4.66) | 13.15 | |
| PLCE | Childrens Place | 0.71 | 11 per month | 6.09 | 0.14 | 24.62 | (11.60) | 107.65 | |
| ANF | Abercrombie Fitch | 0.23 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.82 | (5.01) | 17.90 | |
| LULU | Lululemon Athletica | (3.15) | 8 per month | 1.84 | 0.06 | 3.24 | (3.10) | 11.09 | |
| BURL | Burlington Stores | 0.88 | 9 per month | 2.03 | (0.03) | 2.37 | (2.77) | 9.11 | |
| HIBB | Hibbett Sports | (0.27) | 7 per month | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.56 | (0.24) | 19.75 | |
| EXPR | Express | (0.11) | 17 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 7.69 | (6.76) | 24.98 |
Urban Outfitters Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Urban price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Urban using various technical indicators. When you analyze Urban charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Urban Outfitters Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Urban Outfitters stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Urban Outfitters, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Urban Outfitters based on analysis of Urban Outfitters hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Urban Outfitters's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Urban Outfitters's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 5.12 | 5.35 | 4.75 | 4.79 | PTB Ratio | 1.61 | 1.42 | 1.67 | 1.58 |
Story Coverage note for Urban Outfitters
The number of cover stories for Urban Outfitters depends on current market conditions and Urban Outfitters' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Urban Outfitters is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Urban Outfitters' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Urban Outfitters Short Properties
Urban Outfitters' future price predictability will typically decrease when Urban Outfitters' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Urban Outfitters often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Urban Outfitters' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Urban Outfitters' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 94.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 465.1 M |
Check out Urban Outfitters Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Urban Stock, please use our How to Invest in Urban Outfitters guide.You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Is Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Urban Outfitters. If investors know Urban will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Urban Outfitters listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.127 | Earnings Share 3.27 | Revenue Per Share 57.241 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.063 | Return On Assets 0.0621 |
The market value of Urban Outfitters is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Urban that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Urban Outfitters' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Urban Outfitters' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Urban Outfitters' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Urban Outfitters' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Urban Outfitters' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Urban Outfitters is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Urban Outfitters' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.