Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Stock Price Prediction
| AUPH Stock | USD 8.98 0.03 0.34% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
72
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.09 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.0317 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.575 | Wall Street Target Price 10.8357 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.01 |
Using Aurinia Pharmaceuticals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals from the perspective of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Aurinia Pharmaceuticals to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Aurinia because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals after-hype prediction price | USD 9.05 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Aurinia |
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aurinia Pharmaceuticals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' historical news coverage. Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 6.01 and 12.09, respectively. We have considered Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is based on 3 months time horizon.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aurinia Pharmaceuticals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aurinia Pharmaceuticals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.40 | 3.04 | 0.07 | 0.35 | 9 Events / Month | 11 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
8.98 | 9.05 | 0.78 |
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Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Hype Timeline
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is presently traded for 8.98. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.35. Aurinia is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 9.05 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.78%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.4%. The volatility of related hype on Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is about 349.96%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.33. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 175.51 M. Net Loss for the year was (78.02 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 83.38 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. Getting to know how Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aurinia Pharmaceuticals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Aurinia price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aurinia using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aurinia charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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About Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Aurinia Pharmaceuticals, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals based on analysis of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Aurinia Pharmaceuticals's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Aurinia Pharmaceuticals's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Payables Turnover | 0.28 | 1.83 | 3.27 | 2.2 | Days Of Inventory On Hand | 6.5K | 1.6K | 1.0K | 1.1K |
Story Coverage note for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals
The number of cover stories for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals depends on current market conditions and Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Short Properties
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' future price predictability will typically decrease when Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 143.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 350.5 M |
Complementary Tools for Aurinia Stock analysis
When running Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' price analysis, check to measure Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is operating at the current time. Most of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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