Caseys General Stores Stock Price Prediction
| CASY Stock | USD 420.89 0.09 0.02% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
56
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.069 | EPS Estimate Current Year 12.82 | EPS Estimate Next Year 13.89 | Wall Street Target Price 403.8814 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 4.51 |
Using Caseys General hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Caseys General Stores from the perspective of Caseys General response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Caseys General Stores Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Caseys General's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Caseys. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Caseys can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Caseys General Stores. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Caseys General's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Caseys General.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Caseys General to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Caseys because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Caseys General after-hype prediction price | USD 421.23 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Caseys |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Caseys General's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Caseys General After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Caseys General at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Caseys General or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Caseys General, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Caseys General Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Caseys General's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Caseys General's historical news coverage. Caseys General's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 419.51 and 422.95, respectively. We have considered Caseys General's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Caseys General is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Caseys General Stores is based on 3 months time horizon.
Caseys General Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Caseys General is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Caseys General backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Caseys General, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.29 | 1.72 | 0.34 | 1.92 | 9 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
420.89 | 421.23 | 0.08 |
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Caseys General Hype Timeline
Caseys General Stores is currently traded for 420.89. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.34, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -1.92. Caseys is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 421.23 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 147.01%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.29%. The volatility of related hype on Caseys General is about 25.97%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 418.97. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 14.86 B. Net Income was 501.97 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3.07 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Caseys General Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Caseys General Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Caseys General's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Caseys General's future price movements. Getting to know how Caseys General's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Caseys General may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LESL | Leslies | 0.11 | 8 per month | 6.73 | (0.01) | 10.03 | (7.26) | 51.00 | |
| SBH | Sally Beauty Holdings | (0.06) | 6 per month | 1.81 | 0.01 | 4.86 | (2.78) | 12.66 | |
| ODP | ODP Corp | 0.15 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.98 | (3.73) | 15.70 | |
| FLWS | 1 800 FLOWERSCOM | (0.07) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.87 | (3.95) | 13.16 | |
| EYE | National Vision Holdings | (0.70) | 7 per month | 1.93 | 0.04 | 4.82 | (2.84) | 10.35 | |
| HZO | MarineMax | (0.17) | 7 per month | 2.87 | 0.01 | 6.01 | (4.71) | 18.16 | |
| AZO | AutoZone | (71.87) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.14 | (1.68) | 6.36 | |
| AAP | Advance Auto Parts | 2.53 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 5.43 | (5.44) | 15.49 | |
| TSCO | Tractor Supply | (2.01) | 11 per month | 1.57 | (0.04) | 2.16 | (2.25) | 9.44 | |
| GPC | Genuine Parts Co | (0.37) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.85 | (2.36) | 23.82 | |
| FIVE | Five Below | (0.39) | 11 per month | 2.79 | 0.05 | 5.40 | (3.80) | 16.58 |
Caseys General Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Caseys price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Caseys using various technical indicators. When you analyze Caseys charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Caseys General Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Caseys General stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Caseys General Stores, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Caseys General based on analysis of Caseys General hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Caseys General's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Caseys General's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.00641 | 0.005298 | 0.006254 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.57 | 0.8 | 0.84 |
Story Coverage note for Caseys General
The number of cover stories for Caseys General depends on current market conditions and Caseys General's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Caseys General is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Caseys General's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Caseys General Short Properties
Caseys General's future price predictability will typically decrease when Caseys General's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Caseys General Stores often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Caseys General's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Caseys General's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 37.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 206.5 M |
Additional Tools for Caseys Stock Analysis
When running Caseys General's price analysis, check to measure Caseys General's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Caseys General is operating at the current time. Most of Caseys General's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Caseys General's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Caseys General's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Caseys General to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.