Elf Beauty Stock Price Prediction
| ELF Stock | USD 129.52 2.37 1.86% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
57
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.43) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.88 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.93 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.51 | Wall Street Target Price 158.5 |
Using ELF Beauty hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ELF Beauty from the perspective of ELF Beauty response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
ELF Beauty Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to ELF Beauty's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in ELF. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ELF can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ELF Beauty. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of ELF Beauty's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about ELF Beauty.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in ELF Beauty to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying ELF because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
ELF Beauty after-hype prediction price | USD 129.64 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
ELF |
ELF Beauty After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ELF Beauty at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ELF Beauty or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ELF Beauty, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ELF Beauty Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ELF Beauty's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ELF Beauty's historical news coverage. ELF Beauty's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 126.05 and 133.23, respectively. We have considered ELF Beauty's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ELF Beauty is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ELF Beauty is based on 3 months time horizon.
ELF Beauty Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ELF Beauty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ELF Beauty backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ELF Beauty, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 3.59 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
129.52 | 129.64 | 0.09 |
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ELF Beauty Hype Timeline
On the 30th of November ELF Beauty is traded for 129.52. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.12, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. ELF is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 129.64 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 183.16%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 0.09%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.06%. The volatility of related hype on ELF Beauty is about 975.54%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 129.50. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.02 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 127.66 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 251.73 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out ELF Beauty Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.ELF Beauty Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ELF Beauty's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ELF Beauty's future price movements. Getting to know how ELF Beauty's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ELF Beauty may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SENEB | Seneca Foods Corp | 0.00 | 3 per month | 1.24 | 0.05 | 3.02 | (2.53) | 11.90 | |
| CENTA | Central Garden Pet | (0.84) | 10 per month | 1.46 | (0.09) | 2.74 | (2.72) | 6.82 | |
| CENT | Central Garden Pet | 0.17 | 8 per month | 1.45 | (0.07) | 2.81 | (2.33) | 6.39 | |
| LWAY | Lifeway Foods | 0.91 | 11 per month | 2.24 | 0.09 | 4.86 | (5.06) | 31.34 | |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corp | (1.57) | 4 per month | 1.42 | 0.09 | 2.87 | (1.85) | 11.87 | |
| JJSF | J J Snack | (1.94) | 8 per month | 1.18 | (0.04) | 2.12 | (1.89) | 9.61 | |
| ARZTY | Aryzta AG PK | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 14.15 | |
| JVA | Coffee Holding Co | (0.04) | 4 per month | 3.97 | 0.13 | 9.45 | (7.80) | 47.22 | |
| NATR | Natures Sunshine Products | (0.39) | 8 per month | 1.88 | 0.06 | 6.11 | (2.99) | 22.72 | |
| BRID | Bridgford Foods | 0.02 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 4.07 | (4.87) | 24.74 |
ELF Beauty Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ELF price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ELF using various technical indicators. When you analyze ELF charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About ELF Beauty Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of ELF Beauty stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as ELF Beauty, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of ELF Beauty based on analysis of ELF Beauty hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to ELF Beauty's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to ELF Beauty's related companies. | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 46.11 | 42.41 | 42.83 | 44.13 | PTB Ratio | 4.91 | 4.21 | 10.51 | 16.36 |
Story Coverage note for ELF Beauty
The number of cover stories for ELF Beauty depends on current market conditions and ELF Beauty's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ELF Beauty is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ELF Beauty's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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ELF Beauty Short Properties
ELF Beauty's future price predictability will typically decrease when ELF Beauty's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ELF Beauty often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ELF Beauty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ELF Beauty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 57.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 108.2 M |
Complementary Tools for ELF Stock analysis
When running ELF Beauty's price analysis, check to measure ELF Beauty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ELF Beauty is operating at the current time. Most of ELF Beauty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ELF Beauty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ELF Beauty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ELF Beauty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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