Zto Express Stock Price Prediction
| ZTO Stock | USD 19.00 0.21 1.09% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
31
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.028 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 3.3036 | EPS Estimate Current Year 12.2964 | EPS Estimate Next Year 13.3166 | Wall Street Target Price 195.0023 |
Using ZTO Express hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ZTO Express from the perspective of ZTO Express response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in ZTO Express to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying ZTO because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
ZTO Express after-hype prediction price | USD 18.95 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
ZTO |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ZTO Express' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ZTO Express After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ZTO Express at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ZTO Express or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ZTO Express, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ZTO Express Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ZTO Express' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ZTO Express' historical news coverage. ZTO Express' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 16.57 and 21.33, respectively. We have considered ZTO Express' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ZTO Express is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ZTO Express is based on 3 months time horizon.
ZTO Express Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ZTO Express is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ZTO Express backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ZTO Express, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 2.38 | 0.05 | 0.55 | 7 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
19.00 | 18.95 | 0.26 |
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ZTO Express Hype Timeline
On the 2nd of December ZTO Express is traded for 19.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.55. ZTO is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 18.95. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.26%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.19%. The volatility of related hype on ZTO Express is about 82.71%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.55. About 29.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.83. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. ZTO Express has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.21. The entity last dividend was issued on the 10th of September 2024. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out ZTO Express Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.ZTO Express Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ZTO Express' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ZTO Express' future price movements. Getting to know how ZTO Express' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ZTO Express may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| JBHT | JB Hunt Transport | 4.59 | 11 per month | 1.35 | 0 | 3.15 | (2.36) | 6.94 | |
| HUBG | Hub Group | 1.88 | 7 per month | 1.29 | 0.04 | 3.32 | (2.46) | 11.93 | |
| FWRD | Forward Air | 4.69 | 9 per month | 2.77 | 0.03 | 4.39 | (4.35) | 12.56 | |
| EXPD | Expeditors International of | 0.35 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.89 | (2.13) | 4.65 |
ZTO Express Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ZTO price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ZTO using various technical indicators. When you analyze ZTO charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
About ZTO Express Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of ZTO Express stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as ZTO Express, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of ZTO Express based on analysis of ZTO Express hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to ZTO Express's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to ZTO Express's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.00937 | 0.008749 | 0.017 | 0.0179 | Price To Sales Ratio | 4.75 | 4.28 | 3.17 | 3.01 |
Story Coverage note for ZTO Express
The number of cover stories for ZTO Express depends on current market conditions and ZTO Express' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ZTO Express is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ZTO Express' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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ZTO Express Short Properties
ZTO Express' future price predictability will typically decrease when ZTO Express' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ZTO Express often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ZTO Express' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ZTO Express' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 838.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 19.9 B |
Check out ZTO Express Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in ZTO Stock, please use our How to Invest in ZTO Express guide.You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.
Is Air Freight & Logistics space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ZTO Express. If investors know ZTO will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ZTO Express listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.028 | Earnings Share 1.44 | Revenue Per Share 50.089 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.101 | Return On Assets 0.0775 |
The market value of ZTO Express is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ZTO that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ZTO Express' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ZTO Express' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ZTO Express' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ZTO Express' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ZTO Express' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ZTO Express is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ZTO Express' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.